Shevardeni 1906 6–2 Kolkheti Poti: Result & Stats

Shevardeni 1906

FT

6 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Kolkheti Poti

3/29/2019

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 4Zghvis Baza (Tbilisi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Shevardeni 190647%

×Draw24%

Kolkheti Poti30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shevardeni 1906Expected goals in this matchKolkheti Poti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.34

Shevardeni 1906

1.73

Kolkheti Poti

1.34

Shevardeni 1906 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 46 away

1.75

creates per match

1.17

1.52

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Shevardeni 1906

1.75

Kolkheti Poti

1.17

allows per match

Shevardeni 1906

1.52

Kolkheti Poti

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shevardeni 1906 ↓

Kolkheti Poti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Shevardeni 1906 or draw

70%

Shevardeni 1906 or Kolkheti Poti

76%

Draw or Kolkheti Poti

53%

Winning margin

Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+

25%

Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals

82%

Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals

52%

Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals

25%

Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals

74%

Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals

39%

Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)

61%

Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shevardeni 1906 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

Kolkheti Poti away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.75 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.17 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shevardeni 1906 scores more

47%

level

24%

Kolkheti Poti scores more

30%

Shevardeni 1906 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shevardeni 1906 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Shevardeni

Kolkheti

16

7

22

28

3

5

10

37

29

11

30

1

23

4

19

33

18

8

27

22

32

17

Manager: G. Nemsadze

Shevardeni 1906 substitutes

3Kharshiladze7Nemsadze11Ivaniadze16Somkhishvili20Nanobashvili25Babunadze26Kokhia

Manager: P. Metreveli

Kolkheti Poti substitutes

6Tchetchelashvili17Makharadze19Kirkitadze21Gorozia26Gogidze39Nanava