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Kolkheti Poti vs Shevardeni 1906 — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shevardeni 1906
Shevardeni 1906
5/27/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 13Saragbo Baza Parki-Arena (Poti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kolkheti Poti49%
×Draw25%
Shevardeni 190627%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolkheti Poti
1.63
Shevardeni 1906
1.14

Kolkheti Poti creates 43% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 48 away

creates per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.54
Shevardeni 1906
1.13

allows per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.15
Shevardeni 1906
1.71

finishing

Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par
Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Poti ↓

Shevardeni 1906 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kolkheti Poti or draw
73%
Kolkheti Poti or Shevardeni 1906
75%
Draw or Shevardeni 1906
51%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
26%
Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
80%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
48%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
22%
Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals
68%
Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals
32%
Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
65%
Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Poti at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

Shevardeni 1906 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.54 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.13 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kolkheti Poti scores more
49%
level
25%
Shevardeni 1906 scores more
27%

Kolkheti Poti at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kolkheti Poti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolkheti Poti vs Shevardeni 1906

Kolkheti Poti and Shevardeni 1906 drew 0-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on May 27, 2019.

The match was played at Saragbo Baza Parki-Arena (Poti).