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Shevardeni 1906 vs Guria — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Shevardeni 1906
Shevardeni 1906
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Guria
Guria
7/6/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 18Mukhianis Sportuli Kompleksi (Tbilisi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Shevardeni 190652%
×Draw23%
Guria26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shevardeni 1906
1.88
Guria
1.26

Shevardeni 1906 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 18 away

creates per match

Shevardeni 1906
1.69
Guria
0.89

allows per match

Shevardeni 1906
1.63
Guria
2.06

finishing

Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par
Guria+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shevardeni 1906 ↓

Guria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shevardeni 1906 or draw
74%
Shevardeni 1906 or Guria
77%
Draw or Guria
48%

Winning margin

Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+
29%
Guria wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals
85%
Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals
56%
Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals
29%
Guria 1+ goals
72%
Guria 2+ goals
36%
Guria 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)
67%
Guria (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shevardeni 1906 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Guria away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.69 + Guria defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.88

Guria attack 0.89 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shevardeni 1906 scores more
52%
level
23%
Guria scores more
26%

Shevardeni 1906 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shevardeni 1906 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Shevardeni 1906 2–1 Guria

Shevardeni 1906 beat Guria 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at Mukhianis Sportuli Kompleksi (Tbilisi).