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Guria vs Shevardeni 1906 — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Guria
Guria
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Shevardeni 1906
Shevardeni 1906
9/23/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 27Stadioni Evgrapi Shevardnadze (Lanchkhuti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Guria42%
×Draw25%
Shevardeni 190633%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guria
1.50
Shevardeni 1906
1.31

Guria creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 48 away

creates per match

Guria
1.28
Shevardeni 1906
1.13

allows per match

Guria
1.50
Shevardeni 1906
1.71

finishing

Guria+0.00on par
Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guria ↓

Shevardeni 1906 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Guria or draw
67%
Guria or Shevardeni 1906
75%
Draw or Shevardeni 1906
58%

Winning margin

Guria wins by 2+
20%
Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Guria 1+ goals
78%
Guria 2+ goals
44%
Guria 3+ goals
19%
Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals
73%
Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals
38%
Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Guria (draw refunded)
56%
Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guria at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Shevardeni 1906 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guria attack 1.28 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.13 + Guria defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guria scores more
42%
level
25%
Shevardeni 1906 scores more
33%

Guria at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Guria 3–2 Shevardeni 1906

Guria beat Shevardeni 1906 3-2 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on September 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadioni Evgrapi Shevardnadze (Lanchkhuti).