Shevardeni 1906 6–1 Chikhura Sachkhere

Shevardeni 1906

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Chikhura Sachkhere

11/6/2021

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 33Tsentraluri Stadioni Kaspi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Shevardeni 190663%

×Draw20%

Chikhura Sachkhere17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shevardeni 1906Expected goals in this matchChikhura Sachkhere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.03

Shevardeni 1906

2.15

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.03

Shevardeni 1906 creates 109% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 18 away

1.69

creates per match

0.44

1.63

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Shevardeni 1906

1.69

Chikhura Sachkhere

0.44

allows per match

Shevardeni 1906

1.63

Chikhura Sachkhere

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shevardeni 1906 ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Shevardeni 1906 or draw

83%

Shevardeni 1906 or Chikhura Sachkhere

80%

Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere

37%

Winning margin

Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+

39%

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals

88%

Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals

63%

Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals

36%

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals

64%

Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals

28%

Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)

78%

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shevardeni 1906 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.69 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.15

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.44 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shevardeni 1906 scores more

63%

level

20%

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more

17%

Shevardeni 1906 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shevardeni 1906 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff