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Chikhura Sachkhere vs Shevardeni 1906 — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shevardeni 1906
Shevardeni 1906
4/6/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 6Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere25%
×Draw22%
Shevardeni 190653%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.30
Shevardeni 1906
1.98

Shevardeni 1906 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 48 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
0.89
Shevardeni 1906
1.13

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
2.83
Shevardeni 1906
1.71

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Shevardeni 1906 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
47%
Chikhura Sachkhere or Shevardeni 1906
78%
Draw or Shevardeni 1906
75%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
10%
Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
73%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
37%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
14%
Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals
86%
Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals
59%
Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
32%
Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

Shevardeni 1906 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.89 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.30

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.13 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
25%
level
22%
Shevardeni 1906 scores more
53%

Shevardeni 1906 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shevardeni 1906 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Chikhura Sachkhere 0–1 Shevardeni 1906

Shevardeni 1906 beat Chikhura Sachkhere 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on April 6, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni in Ivantsminda.