Shevardeni 1906 7–1 Aragvi Dusheti: Result & Stats

Shevardeni 1906

FT

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Aragvi Dusheti

L. Ughrelidze 87'

N. Koridze 77'

G. Jinikashvili 55'

Z. Golubiani 45', 5'

R. Aminu 43', 26'

L. Kokosadze 25'

11/22/2020

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 16David Petriashvili Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Shevardeni 190650%

×Draw24%

Aragvi Dusheti25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shevardeni 1906Expected goals in this matchAragvi Dusheti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.11

Shevardeni 1906

1.66

Aragvi Dusheti

1.11

Shevardeni 1906 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 37 away

1.78

creates per match

0.73

1.50

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Shevardeni 1906

1.78

Aragvi Dusheti

0.73

allows per match

Shevardeni 1906

1.50

Aragvi Dusheti

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Aragvi Dusheti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shevardeni 1906 ↓

Aragvi Dusheti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shevardeni 1906 or draw

75%

Shevardeni 1906 or Aragvi Dusheti

76%

Draw or Aragvi Dusheti

50%

Winning margin

Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+

27%

Aragvi Dusheti wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals

81%

Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals

49%

Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals

23%

Aragvi Dusheti 1+ goals

67%

Aragvi Dusheti 2+ goals

30%

Aragvi Dusheti 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)

66%

Aragvi Dusheti (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shevardeni 1906 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

Aragvi Dusheti away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.78 + Aragvi Dusheti defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Aragvi Dusheti attack 0.73 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shevardeni 1906 scores more

50%

level

24%

Aragvi Dusheti scores more

25%

Shevardeni 1906 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shevardeni 1906 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

25'

26'

43'

45'

55'

59'

M. İsmayılzadə← C. Osuagwu

62'

H. Ijama← G. Jinikashvili

77'

N. Koridze

79'

S. Kometiani← I. Rekhviashvili

87'

L. Ughrelidze

Shevardeni

Aragvi

1

33

12

24

16

6

9

13

18

36

37

⚽

1

23

9

18

6

⚽

Koridze

8

⚽

Ughrelidz

28

▼

Rekhviash

27

⚽2

Golubiani

21

⚽

▼

Jinikashv

25

⚽2

Aminu

10

▼

Osuagwu

Manager: I. Tchikadze

59'▲M. İsmayılzadə←▼C. Osuagwu

62'▲H. Ijama←▼G. Jinikashvili

79'▲S. Kometiani←▼I. Rekhviashvili

Shevardeni 1906 substitutes

20İsmayılzadə26Ijama13Kometiani16Somkhishvili39Metreveli15Labartkava17Tkeshelashvili22Ordenidze

Manager: L. Burduli

Aragvi Dusheti substitutes

34Khubuluri38Letandze

Erovnuli Liga 2: Shevardeni 1906 7–1 Aragvi Dusheti

Shevardeni 1906 beat Aragvi Dusheti 7-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 22, 2020.

Goals: Z. Golubiani (5', 45'), L. Kokosadze (25'), R. Aminu (26', 43'), G. Jinikashvili (55'), N. Koridze (77'), L. Ughrelidze (87').

The match was played at David Petriashvili Arena in Tbilisi.

Shevardeni 1906 vs Aragvi Dusheti — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Erovnuli Liga 2: Shevardeni 1906 7–1 Aragvi Dusheti