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Shevardeni 1906 vs Aragvi Dusheti — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Shevardeni 1906
Shevardeni 1906
CANC
10:00
Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
11/20/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Shevardeni 190644%
×Draw26%
Aragvi Dusheti30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shevardeni 1906
1.49
Aragvi Dusheti
1.19

Shevardeni 1906 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 35 away

creates per match

Shevardeni 1906
1.69
Aragvi Dusheti
0.74

allows per match

Shevardeni 1906
1.63
Aragvi Dusheti
1.29

finishing

Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par
Aragvi Dusheti+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shevardeni 1906 ↓

Aragvi Dusheti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shevardeni 1906 or draw
70%
Shevardeni 1906 or Aragvi Dusheti
74%
Draw or Aragvi Dusheti
56%

Winning margin

Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+
22%
Aragvi Dusheti wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals
77%
Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals
44%
Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals
19%
Aragvi Dusheti 1+ goals
70%
Aragvi Dusheti 2+ goals
33%
Aragvi Dusheti 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)
59%
Aragvi Dusheti (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shevardeni 1906 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Aragvi Dusheti away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.69 + Aragvi Dusheti defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.49

Aragvi Dusheti attack 0.74 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shevardeni 1906 scores more
44%
level
26%
Aragvi Dusheti scores more
30%

Shevardeni 1906 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shevardeni 1906 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shevardeni 1906 vs Aragvi Dusheti — Match Preview

Shevardeni 1906 face Aragvi Dusheti on November 20, 2020 in this Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.