Sheriff U19 1–3 Qabala U19: Result & Stats

Sheriff U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Qabala U19

V. Nihaev 53' (pen)

V. Dijinari 63' (OG)

S. Qurbanov 62', 43'

10/24/2018

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundMalaya Sportivnaya Arena (Tiraspol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sheriff U1957%

×Draw21%

Qabala U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheriff U19Expected goals in this matchQabala U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.17

Sheriff U19

2.03

Qabala U19

1.17

Sheriff U19 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.63

creates per match

0.71

1.63

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Sheriff U19

1.63

Qabala U19

0.71

allows per match

Sheriff U19

1.63

Qabala U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheriff U19+0.00on par

Qabala U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff U19 ↓

Qabala U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sheriff U19 or draw

78%

Sheriff U19 or Qabala U19

79%

Draw or Qabala U19

43%

Winning margin

Sheriff U19 wins by 2+

34%

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sheriff U19 1+ goals

87%

Sheriff U19 2+ goals

60%

Sheriff U19 3+ goals

33%

Qabala U19 1+ goals

69%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

33%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sheriff U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Qabala U19 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff U19 attack 1.63 + Qabala U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.03

Qabala U19 attack 0.71 + Sheriff U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sheriff U19 scores more

57%

level

21%

Qabala U19 scores more

22%

Sheriff U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sheriff U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

S. Qurbanov

53'

V. NihaevPenalty

62'

S. Qurbanov

63'

V. DijinariOwn goal

67'

E. Pleşco← E. Gliga

83'

A. Mursalov← T. Isazade

87'

S. Maharramli← A. Sadikhov

90+2'

N. Orujlu← S. Qurbanov

Sheriff

Qabala

12

6

2

3

4

7

▼

Sadikhov

8

Ağazadə

15

Ingilabli

11

⚽2

▼

Qurbanov

10

▼

17

1

99

9

39

90

🥅

Dijinari

31

Ignatov

26

⚽

Nihaev

11

Cuzmenco

30

Macalici

8

▼

Gliga

19

Osipov

Manager: L. Pavlović

67'▲E. Pleşco←▼E. Gliga

Sheriff U19 substitutes

18Pleşco4Plokhotniuk12Cioban14Stoianov22Morarenco32Grecul33Cesnocov

Manager: E. İmamäliyev

83'▲A. Mursalov←▼T. Isazade

87'▲S. Maharramli←▼A. Sadikhov

90+2'▲N. Orujlu←▼S. Qurbanov

Qabala U19 substitutes

9Mursalov18Maharramli16Orujlu1Sultanov5Aghjabayov14Muradov13Aliyev