Qabala U19 1–1 Sheriff U19: Result & Stats

Qabala U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sheriff U19

A. Sadikhov 57' (pen)

D. Ignatov 31'

10/3/2018

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundŞəhər stadionu (Qəbələ)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Qabala U1939%

×Draw23%

Sheriff U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qabala U19Expected goals in this matchSheriff U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.64

Qabala U19

1.66

Sheriff U19

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.57

creates per match

1.13

2.14

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Qabala U19

0.57

Sheriff U19

1.13

allows per match

Qabala U19

2.14

Sheriff U19

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qabala U19+0.00on par

Sheriff U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qabala U19 ↓

Sheriff U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Qabala U19 or draw

62%

Qabala U19 or Sheriff U19

77%

Draw or Sheriff U19

61%

Winning margin

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

20%

Sheriff U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Qabala U19 1+ goals

81%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

49%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

23%

Sheriff U19 1+ goals

81%

Sheriff U19 2+ goals

49%

Sheriff U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Sheriff U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qabala U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Sheriff U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qabala U19 attack 0.57 + Sheriff U19 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sheriff U19 attack 1.13 + Qabala U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Qabala U19 scores more

39%

level

23%

Sheriff U19 scores more

38%

Qabala U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Qabala U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

D. Ignatov

46'

A. Mursalov← T. Isazade

57'

A. SadikhovPenalty

67'

E. Cesnocov← A. Cuzmenco

78'

I. Mocon← E. Gliga

80'

M. Maharramov← S. Qurbanov

85'

N. Orujlu← V. Masimov

Qabala

Sheriff

1

99

9

39

90

31

⚽

Ignatov

26

Nihaev

11

▼

Cuzmenco

30

Macalici

8

▼

19

12

2

3

16

4

▼

Masimov

6

Hajiyev

7

⚽

Sadikhov

8

Ağazadə

15

Ingilabli

11

▼

Qurbanov

10

▼

Isazade

Manager: E. İmamäliyev

46'▲A. Mursalov←▼T. Isazade

80'▲M. Maharramov←▼S. Qurbanov

85'▲N. Orujlu←▼V. Masimov

Qabala U19 substitutes

9Mursalov17Maharramov13Orujlu5Aghjabayov1Sultanov18Rahimli14Muradov

Manager: L. Pavlović

67'▲E. Cesnocov←▼A. Cuzmenco

78'▲I. Mocon←▼E. Gliga

Sheriff U19 substitutes

33Cesnocov45Mocon12Cioban14Stoianov18Pleşco22Morarenco32Grecul

UEFA Youth League: Qabala U19 1–1 Sheriff U19

Qabala U19 and Sheriff U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 3, 2018.

Goals: D. Ignatov (31'), A. Sadikhov (57' pen).

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu (Qəbələ).

Qabala U19 vs Sheriff U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Qabala U19 1–1 Sheriff U19