Sheriff U19 2–4 Internazionale U19: Result & Stats

Sheriff U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Internazionale U19

D. Forov 76', 8'

L. Peschetola 81', 61'

G. Fabbian 40'

F. Abiuso 36'

11/3/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Malaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sheriff U1940%

×Draw23%

Internazionale U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheriff U19Expected goals in this matchInternazionale U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.64

Sheriff U19

1.69

Internazionale U19

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 20 away

1.63

creates per match

1.65

1.63

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sheriff U19

1.63

Internazionale U19

1.65

allows per match

Sheriff U19

1.63

Internazionale U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheriff U19+0.00on par

Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff U19 ↓

Internazionale U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sheriff U19 or draw

63%

Sheriff U19 or Internazionale U19

77%

Draw or Internazionale U19

60%

Winning margin

Sheriff U19 wins by 2+

20%

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sheriff U19 1+ goals

82%

Sheriff U19 2+ goals

50%

Sheriff U19 3+ goals

24%

Internazionale U19 1+ goals

81%

Internazionale U19 2+ goals

49%

Internazionale U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sheriff U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Internazionale U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff U19 attack 1.63 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Internazionale U19 attack 1.65 + Sheriff U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sheriff U19 scores more

40%

level

23%

Internazionale U19 scores more

37%

Sheriff U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sheriff U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

N. Picus

8'

D. Forov↳ D. Pogreban

29'

A. Fontanarosa

36'

F. Abiuso↳ M. Sangalli

40'

G. Fabbian↳ L. Peschetola

61'

L. Peschetola

65'

N. Spatar← D. Pogreban

65'

A. Jaloba← V. Costin

65'

E. Owusu← N. Iliev

65'

S. Grygar← C. Casadei

69'

A. Moretti

72'

D. Curatolo← F. Abiuso

76'

M. Sangalli

76'

D. Forov

81'

L. Peschetola↳ M. Zanotti

82'

F. Esposito← L. Peschetola

82'

S. Matjaž← A. Moretti

89'

V. Coliş← A. Hatman

89'

S. Greşciuc← R. Scurtul

90+2'

A. Jaloba

90+3'

F. Esposito

Sheriff

Internazionale

21

Botis

6

Cortinovi

2

A

Zanotti

15

Fontanaro

13

▼

Moretti

8

▼

Casadei

4

A

Sangalli

14

⚽

Fabbian

10

▼

Iliev

11

⚽

▼

Abiuso

7

⚽2A

▼

1

77

35

11

23

▼

Scurtul

24

▼

Costin

55

⚽2

Forov

18

Covali

9

A

▼

Pogreban

17

▼

Hatman

44

Carmanov

Manager: A. Corneencov

65'▲N. Spatar←▼D. Pogreban

65'▲A. Jaloba←▼V. Costin

89'▲V. Coliş←▼A. Hatman

89'▲S. Greşciuc←▼R. Scurtul

Sheriff U19 substitutes

16Spatar14Jaloba15Coliş6Greşciuc22Boţan33Dumenco3Yaţco

Manager: C. Chivu

65'▲E. Owusu←▼N. Iliev

65'▲S. Grygar←▼C. Casadei

72'▲D. Curatolo←▼F. Abiuso

82'▲F. Esposito←▼L. Peschetola

82'▲S. Matjaž←▼A. Moretti

Internazionale U19 substitutes

9Owusu18Grygar19Curatolo20Esposito3Matjaž1Rovida5Hoti

Match Recap: Sheriff U19 vs Internazionale U19

Internazionale U19 beat Sheriff U19 4-2 in UEFA Youth League on November 3, 2021.

Goals: D. Forov (8', 76'), F. Abiuso (36'), G. Fabbian (40'), L. Peschetola (61', 81').

The match was played at Malaya Sportivnaya Arena in Tiraspol.

Sheriff U19 vs Internazionale U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sheriff U19 vs Internazionale U19