Internazionale U19 2–1 Sheriff U19: Result & Stats

Internazionale U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sheriff U19

A. Carmanov 66' (OG)

C. Casadei 50'

D. Pogreban 83'

10/19/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Centro Sportivo Giacinto Facchetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Internazionale U1963%

×Draw19%

Sheriff U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internazionale U19Expected goals in this matchSheriff U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.27

Internazionale U19

2.45

Sheriff U19

1.27

Internazionale U19 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

2.14

creates per match

1.13

1.41

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Internazionale U19

2.14

Sheriff U19

1.13

allows per match

Internazionale U19

1.41

Sheriff U19

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Sheriff U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internazionale U19 ↓

Sheriff U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Internazionale U19 or draw

81%

Internazionale U19 or Sheriff U19

81%

Draw or Sheriff U19

37%

Winning margin

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+

41%

Sheriff U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Internazionale U19 1+ goals

91%

Internazionale U19 2+ goals

70%

Internazionale U19 3+ goals

44%

Sheriff U19 1+ goals

72%

Sheriff U19 2+ goals

36%

Sheriff U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Sheriff U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internazionale U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Sheriff U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internazionale U19 attack 2.14 + Sheriff U19 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.45

Sheriff U19 attack 1.13 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Internazionale U19 scores more

63%

level

19%

Sheriff U19 scores more

19%

Internazionale U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Internazionale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

F. Carboni

30'

A. Carmanov

31'

O. Jurgens

38'

R. Scurtul

46'

V. Carboni← E. Owusu

49'

V. Carboni

50'

C. Casadei↳ F. Carboni

54'

D. Boţan← N. Covalschi

66'

F. Nunziatini← N. Iliev

66'

A. CarmanovOwn goal

69'

A. Jaloba← R. Scurtul

69'

V. Coliş← P. Cucereavenco

72'

D. Curatolo← O. Jürgens

73'

F. Cortinovis← F. Carboni

81'

D. Pogreban← D. Boţan

82'

V. Yaţco← A. Hatman

83'

D. Pogreban

88'

V. Yatco

90+2'

S. Bonavita← G. Fabbian

Internazionale

Sheriff

33

Dumenco

77

Picus

35

Ichim

11

▼

Covalschi

23

▼

24

55

18

98

▼

Cucereave

17

▼

Hatman

44

🥅

1

5

2

15

8

⚽

Casadei

4

Sangalli

14

▼

Fabbian

10

▼

Iliev

6

A

▼

Carboni

11

▼

Owusu

9

▼

Jürgens

Manager: C. Chivu

46'▲V. Carboni←▼E. Owusu

66'▲F. Nunziatini←▼N. Iliev

72'▲D. Curatolo←▼O. Jürgens

73'▲F. Cortinovis←▼F. Carboni

90+2'▲S. Bonavita←▼G. Fabbian

Internazionale U19 substitutes

20Carboni7Nunziatini19Curatolo3Cortinovis16Bonavita12Raimondi13Moretti

Manager: A. Corneencov

54'▲D. Boţan←▼N. Covalschi

69'▲A. Jaloba←▼R. Scurtul

69'▲V. Coliş←▼P. Cucereavenco

81'▲D. Pogreban←▼D. Boţan

82'▲V. Yaţco←▼A. Hatman

Sheriff U19 substitutes

22Boţan14Jaloba15Coliş9Pogreban3Yaţco26Dijinari1Savocica

Match Recap: Internazionale U19 vs Sheriff U19

Internazionale U19 beat Sheriff U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 19, 2021.

Goals: C. Casadei (50'), A. Carmanov (66' o.g.), D. Pogreban (83').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Giacinto Facchetti in Milano.

Internazionale U19 vs Sheriff U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internazionale U19 vs Sheriff U19