Sheriff Tiraspol 2–0 Shakhtar Donetsk

Sheriff Tiraspol

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shakhtar Donetsk

M. Yansane 62'

A. Traoré 16'

9/15/2021

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 1Bolshaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol48%

×Draw25%

Shakhtar Donetsk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheriff TiraspolExpected goals in this matchShakhtar Donetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.14

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.62

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.14

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

1.36

creates per match

1.41

0.86

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.36

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.41

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.86

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw

73%

Sheriff Tiraspol or Shakhtar Donetsk

75%

Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk

52%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

25%

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

80%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

48%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

22%

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

68%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

32%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

64%

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 1.36 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.62

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.41 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

48%

level

25%

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

27%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Cristiano

Sheriff Tiraspol · D

9.2

Match Events

16'

A. Traoré↳ Cristiano

42'

Gustavo Dulanto

46'

Marlos← Tetê

55'

M. Yansane← D. Kolovos

62'

M. Yansane↳ Cristiano

64'

Alan Patrick← Marcos Antonio

65'

M. Mudryk← Fernando

67'

Bruno Souza← J. Yaxshiboyev

85'

S. Radeljić← E. Addo

85'

B. Nikolov← F. Castañeda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheriffShakhtar

Overview

25%Possession75%

11Total Shots20

5Corners17

7Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots20

4On Target3

3Off Target11

4Blocked6

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box13

Passing

25%Possession75%

228Total Passes665

161Accurate Passes606

71%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0