Shakhtar Donetsk 1–1 Sheriff Tiraspol

Shakhtar Donetsk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sheriff Tiraspol

Fernando 42'

B. Nikolov 90+3'

12/7/2021

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 6NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk19%

×Draw25%

Sheriff Tiraspol56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar DonetskExpected goals in this matchSheriff Tiraspol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.60

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.83

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.60

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 93% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

0.75

creates per match

1.15

2.06

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.75

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.15

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.06

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw

44%

Shakhtar Donetsk or Sheriff Tiraspol

75%

Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol

81%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

6%

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

56%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

20%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

5%

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

80%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

47%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

26%

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.75 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.83

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 1.15 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

19%

level

25%

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

56%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. Kryvtsov

Shakhtar Donetsk · D

7.5

Match Events

10'

Fernando

18'

Edmund Addo

42'

Fernando↳ S. Kryvtsov

46'

Tetê← H. Sudakov

46'

M. Mudryk← Fernando

46'

B. Nikolov← D. Kolovos

67'

Maycon← A. Bondarenko

67'

Ismaily← V. Kornienko

78'

Mykhailo Mudryk

83'

Gustavo Dulanto

86'

O. Shevchenko← A. Pyatov

90+3'

B. Nikolov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShakhtarSheriff

Overview

69%Possession31%

20Total Shots12

7Corners2

6Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots12

5On Target4

12Off Target6

3Blocked2

15Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

671Total Passes294

607Accurate Passes226

90%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3