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Sheriff Tiraspol vs Pyunik Yerevan — UEFA Europa League 2018

Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
8/25/2022UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Play-offsStadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol44%
×Draw28%
Pyunik Yerevan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheriff Tiraspol
1.29
Pyunik Yerevan
0.96

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 34% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
1.09
Pyunik Yerevan
1.00

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
0.91
Pyunik Yerevan
1.50

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par
Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw
72%
Sheriff Tiraspol or Pyunik Yerevan
72%
Draw or Pyunik Yerevan
56%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
20%
Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
72%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
37%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
14%
Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
62%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
25%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
61%
Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 1.09 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.00 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
44%
level
28%
Pyunik Yerevan scores more
28%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sheriff Tiraspol vs Pyunik Yerevan

Sheriff Tiraspol and Pyunik Yerevan drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa League on August 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Zimbru in Chişinău.