Pyunik Yerevan 0–0 Sheriff Tiraspol: Result & Stats

Pyunik Yerevan

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheriff Tiraspol

8/18/2022

UEFA Europa League · Play-offsVazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pyunik Yerevan44%

×Draw28%

Sheriff Tiraspol28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyunik YerevanExpected goals in this matchSheriff Tiraspol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.98

Pyunik Yerevan

1.32

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.98

Pyunik Yerevan creates 35% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

0.82

1.14

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Pyunik Yerevan

1.00

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.82

allows per match

Pyunik Yerevan

1.14

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik Yerevan ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pyunik Yerevan or draw

72%

Pyunik Yerevan or Sheriff Tiraspol

72%

Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol

56%

Winning margin

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+

21%

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals

73%

Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals

38%

Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals

15%

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

62%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

26%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)

62%

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik Yerevan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.00 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 0.82 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pyunik Yerevan scores more

44%

level

28%

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

28%

Pyunik Yerevan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff