Sheriff Tiraspol 3–0 Politehnica UTM

Sheriff Tiraspol

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Politehnica UTM

8/10/2025

Super Liga · Round 8Sheriff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol75%

×Draw16%

Politehnica UTM9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheriff TiraspolExpected goals in this matchPolitehnica UTM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

0.74

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.49

Politehnica UTM

0.74

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 236% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 17 away

2.63

creates per match

1.06

0.43

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.63

Politehnica UTM

1.06

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.43

Politehnica UTM

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Politehnica UTM+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Politehnica UTM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw

91%

Sheriff Tiraspol or Politehnica UTM

84%

Draw or Politehnica UTM

25%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

53%

Politehnica UTM wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

92%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

71%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

45%

Politehnica UTM 1+ goals

52%

Politehnica UTM 2+ goals

17%

Politehnica UTM 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

89%

Politehnica UTM (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.43 · 105 matches

Politehnica UTM away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.63 + Politehnica UTM defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.49

Politehnica UTM attack 1.06 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

75%

level

16%

Politehnica UTM scores more

9%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff