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Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol — Super Liga 2026

Politehnica UTM
Politehnica UTM
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
6/22/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 1Stadionul Suruceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Politehnica UTM20%
×Draw22%
Sheriff Tiraspol59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica UTM
1.07
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.99

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 86% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 92 away

creates per match

Politehnica UTM
1.65
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.10

allows per match

Politehnica UTM
1.88
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.50

finishing

Politehnica UTM+0.00on par
Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica UTM ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Politehnica UTM or draw
41%
Politehnica UTM or Sheriff Tiraspol
78%
Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol
80%

Winning margin

Politehnica UTM wins by 2+
7%
Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Politehnica UTM 1+ goals
66%
Politehnica UTM 2+ goals
29%
Politehnica UTM 3+ goals
9%
Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
86%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
59%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Politehnica UTM (draw refunded)
25%
Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica UTM at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica UTM attack 1.65 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.10 + Politehnica UTM defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Politehnica UTM scores more
20%
level
22%
Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
59%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol

Sheriff Tiraspol beat Politehnica UTM 4-0 in Super Liga on June 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Suruceni in Suruceni.