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Sheriff Tiraspol vs Olimpija Ljubljana — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
8/15/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundBolshaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol30%
×Draw33%
Olimpija Ljubljana37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheriff Tiraspol
0.84
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.97

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 15% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
0.25
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.93

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.43

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par
Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Olimpija Ljubljana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw
63%
Sheriff Tiraspol or Olimpija Ljubljana
67%
Draw or Olimpija Ljubljana
70%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
10%
Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
57%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
21%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
5%
Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals
62%
Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
25%
Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
45%
Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Olimpija Ljubljana away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 0.25 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.84

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 0.93 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
30%
level
33%
Olimpija Ljubljana scores more
37%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sheriff Tiraspol vs Olimpija Ljubljana

Olimpija Ljubljana beat Sheriff Tiraspol 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 15, 2024.

The match was played at Bolshaya Sportivnaya Arena in Tiraspol.