Olimpija Ljubljana 3–0 Sheriff Tiraspol

Olimpija Ljubljana

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sheriff Tiraspol

8/8/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olimpija Ljubljana60%

×Draw21%

Sheriff Tiraspol18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpija LjubljanaExpected goals in this matchSheriff Tiraspol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.97

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.97

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.97

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 103% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

1.44

creates per match

1.00

0.94

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.44

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.00

allows per match

Olimpija Ljubljana

0.94

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpija Ljubljana ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Olimpija Ljubljana or draw

82%

Olimpija Ljubljana or Sheriff Tiraspol

79%

Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol

40%

Winning margin

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+

36%

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals

86%

Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals

58%

Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals

31%

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

62%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

25%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)

77%

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpija Ljubljana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.44 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 1.00 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more

60%

level

21%

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

18%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff