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Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dinamo-Auto — Super Liga 2019

Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
FT
7 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Dinamo-Auto
Dinamo-Auto
8/7/2021Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 5Bolshaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol70%
×Draw17%
Dinamo-Auto12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheriff Tiraspol
2.38
Dinamo-Auto
0.88

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 170% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 55 away

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
2.55
Dinamo-Auto
1.35

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
0.40
Dinamo-Auto
2.22

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par
Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Dinamo-Auto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw
88%
Sheriff Tiraspol or Dinamo-Auto
83%
Draw or Dinamo-Auto
30%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
47%
Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
91%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
68%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
42%
Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals
59%
Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals
22%
Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
85%
Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.40 · 102 matches

Dinamo-Auto away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.55 + Dinamo-Auto defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.38

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.35 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
70%
level
17%
Dinamo-Auto scores more
12%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Sheriff Tiraspol 7–1 Dinamo-Auto

Sheriff Tiraspol beat Dinamo-Auto 7-1 in Super Liga on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Bolshaya Sportivnaya Arena in Tiraspol.