Dinamo-Auto 0–3 Sheriff Tiraspol: Result & Stats

Dinamo-Auto

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Sheriff Tiraspol

4/29/2022

Super Liga · Round 26Stadionul Dinamo-Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dinamo-Auto20%

×Draw24%

Sheriff Tiraspol57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo-AutoExpected goals in this matchSheriff Tiraspol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.72

Dinamo-Auto

0.90

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.72

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 91% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 90 away

1.31

creates per match

2.08

1.35

allows per match

0.49

creates per match

Dinamo-Auto

1.31

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.08

allows per match

Dinamo-Auto

1.35

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo-Auto ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo-Auto or draw

43%

Dinamo-Auto or Sheriff Tiraspol

76%

Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol

80%

Winning margin

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+

6%

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals

59%

Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals

23%

Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals

6%

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

82%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

51%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)

26%

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo-Auto at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.49 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.31 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.90

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.08 + Dinamo-Auto defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dinamo-Auto scores more

20%

level

24%

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

57%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff