Dinamo-Auto 2–3 Sheriff Tiraspol: Result & Stats

Dinamo-Auto

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Sheriff Tiraspol

A. Bursuc 79'

O. Bulat 45'

Pernambuco 41'

C. Badolo 35', 9'

4/26/2022

Cupa · Semi-finalsStadionul Dinamo-Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dinamo-Auto58%

×Draw18%

Sheriff Tiraspol24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo-AutoExpected goals in this matchSheriff Tiraspol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

1.83

Dinamo-Auto

2.83

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.83

Dinamo-Auto creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

5.00

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Dinamo-Auto

5.00

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.00

allows per match

Dinamo-Auto

1.67

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo-Auto ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Dinamo-Auto or draw

76%

Dinamo-Auto or Sheriff Tiraspol

82%

Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol

42%

Winning margin

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+

38%

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals

94%

Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals

77%

Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals

53%

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

84%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

54%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)

70%

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo-Auto at home — creates 5.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo-Auto attack 5.00 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.00 + Dinamo-Auto defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dinamo-Auto scores more

58%

level

18%

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

24%

Dinamo-Auto at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo-Auto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

35'

41'

45'

46'

53'

R. Abalora← G. Athanasiadis

70'

V. Andoni← V. Cemîrtan

71'

D. Ankudinov← Pernambuco

79'

A. Bursuc

80'

A. Cuzmenco← M. Mihaliov

84'

Renan Guedes← C. Petro

Dinamo-Auto

Sheriff

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: O. Bezhenar

46'▲I. Chiperi←▼N. Picus

70'▲V. Andoni←▼V. Cemîrtan

80'▲A. Cuzmenco←▼M. Mihaliov

Dinamo-Auto substitutes

ChiperiAndoniCuzmencoApostolachiBlajchinGubinIvanovBoicoYakovlevDanilov

Manager: Y. Vernydub

53'▲R. Abalora←▼G. Athanasiadis

71'▲D. Ankudinov←▼Pernambuco

84'▲Renan Guedes←▼C. Petro

Sheriff Tiraspol substitutes

AbaloraAnkudinovGuedesDarankoumNikolovCeleadnicYansaneKpozoLushkjaRadeljić

Match Recap: Dinamo-Auto vs Sheriff Tiraspol

Sheriff Tiraspol beat Dinamo-Auto 3-2 in Cupa on April 26, 2022.

Goals: C. Badolo (9', 35'), Pernambuco (41'), O. Bulat (45'), A. Bursuc (79').

The match was played at Stadionul Dinamo-Auto in Ternovca.

Dinamo-Auto vs Sheriff Tiraspol — Cupa 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dinamo-Auto vs Sheriff Tiraspol