Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–4 Shandong Luneng

Shenzhen Ruby FC

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Shandong Luneng

9/24/2022

Super League · Round 17Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC29%

×Draw24%

Shandong Luneng47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shenzhen Ruby FCExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.70

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.27

Shandong Luneng

1.70

Shandong Luneng creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 122 away

1.09

creates per match

1.77

1.63

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.09

Shandong Luneng

1.77

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.63

Shandong Luneng

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw

53%

Shenzhen Ruby FC or Shandong Luneng

76%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

71%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

12%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

72%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

36%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

14%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

82%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

51%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

38%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

29%

level

24%

Shandong Luneng scores more

47%

Shandong Luneng at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff