Shandong Luneng 4–2 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Shandong Luneng

FT

4 – 2

HT: 4 – 2

Shenzhen Ruby FC

8/5/2021

Super League · Round 12Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Shandong Luneng66%

×Draw19%

Shenzhen Ruby FC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchShenzhen Ruby FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.96

Shandong Luneng

2.24

Shenzhen Ruby FC

0.96

Shandong Luneng creates 133% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 67 away

2.23

creates per match

1.03

0.88

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

2.23

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.03

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

0.88

Shenzhen Ruby FC

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

85%

Shandong Luneng or Shenzhen Ruby FC

81%

Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC

34%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

43%

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

89%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

65%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

38%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

62%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

25%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

82%

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 2.23 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.24

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

66%

level

19%

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

15%

Shandong Luneng at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff