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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia — Super League 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
5/28/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC43%
×Draw25%
Meizhou Kejia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.54
Meizhou Kejia
1.28

Shenzhen Ruby FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 62 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.09
Meizhou Kejia
0.94

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.63
Meizhou Kejia
2.00

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
68%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Meizhou Kejia
75%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
57%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
22%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
79%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
45%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
20%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
72%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
37%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
58%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
43%
level
25%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
32%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia

Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Meizhou Kejia 3-2 in Super League on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre in Shenzhen.