Meizhou Kejia 5–1 Shenzhen Ruby FC: Result & Stats

Meizhou Kejia

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Shenzhen Ruby FC

A. Kotnik 87', 72'

Ye Chugui 76'

T. Conraad 23'

Rodrigo Henrique 14'

Shen Zigui 82'

9/16/2023

Super League · Round 25Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Meizhou Kejia51%

×Draw23%

Shenzhen Ruby FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou KejiaExpected goals in this matchShenzhen Ruby FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.29

Meizhou Kejia

1.86

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.29

Meizhou Kejia creates 44% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 67 away

1.48

creates per match

1.03

1.56

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.48

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.03

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.56

Shenzhen Ruby FC

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw

73%

Meizhou Kejia or Shenzhen Ruby FC

77%

Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC

49%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

28%

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

84%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

55%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

28%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

72%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

37%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

66%

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.56 · 62 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.48 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.86

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more

51%

level

23%

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

27%

Meizhou Kejia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Rodrigo Henrique

Meizhou Kejia · M

9.5

Match Events

14'

Rodrigo Henrique

16'

Xu Haofeng

20'

Nebojša Kosović

23'

T. Conraad↳ Rodrigo Henrique

43'

46'

55'

68'

71'

A. Kotnik← T. Conraad

71'

Yang Yihu← Yang Chaosheng

72'

A. Kotnik↳ N. Kosović

73'

Chen Xiangyu← Du Yuezheng

73'

Shen Zigui← Shahsat Hujahmat

76'

Ye Chugui↳ Yang Yihu

79'

Zhou Xin← Chen Guoliang

82'

Shi Liang← Chen Jie

82'

Shen Zigui↳ Zheng Dalun

87'

Yin Congyao← Rodrigo Henrique

87'

A. Kotnik↳ Shi Liang

88'

Yang Yilin← Ye Chugui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MeizhouShenzhen

Overview

60%Possession40%

29Total Shots3

4.20Expected Goals (xG)0.29

12Corners0

14Fouls9

Shots

29Total Shots3

13On Target1

10Off Target0

6Blocked2

25Inside Box1

4Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

457Total Passes317

391Accurate Passes242

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1