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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — Super League 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
10/18/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC26%
×Draw24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.18
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.73

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.09
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.84

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.63
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.26

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
50%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
76%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
74%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
10%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
69%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
33%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
12%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
82%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
52%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
34%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.84 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
26%
level
24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
50%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2–3 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 3-2 in Super League on October 18, 2019.

The match was played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre in Shenzhen.