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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Yang Liyu 65'
Wei Shihao 51', 45+3'
Du Yuezheng 21' (OG)
F. Acheampong 32'
8/21/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Huadu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC63%
×Draw20%
Shenzhen Ruby FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.15
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 109% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.04
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.03
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
83%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Shenzhen Ruby FC
80%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
37%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
39%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
88%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
63%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
36%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
64%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
28%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
78%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.15

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
63%
level
20%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
17%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Wei ShihaoGuangzhou Evergrande FCGuangzhou Evergrande FC · F
8.5

Match Events

21'
Du YuezhengOwn goal
26'
Li Yang
32'
F. Acheampong↳ Jiang Zhipeng
45'
Dinghao Yan
45+3'
Wei Shihao↳ Chen Rijin
51'
Wei Shihao↳ Wu Shaocong
55'
Wang Yongpo← Xu Yue
55'
Gao Lin← Du Yuezheng
63'
Huang Guangliang← Cai Mingmin
63'
Ling Jie← Li Jiaheng
65'
Yang Liyu↳ Yan Dinghao
67'
Yuanyi Li
69'
Huang Ruifeng← Yeljan Shinar
72'
Shihao Wei
73'
Rijin Chen
76'
Li Xuepeng← Chen Rijin
86'
Fan Hengbo← Yang Liyu
87'
He Xinjie← Yan Dinghao
88'
Wu Xingyu← Dai Wai-Tsun

Possession

41%Guangzhou

Shots

11Guangzhou

Pass accuracy

49%Guangzhou

Statistics

GuangzhouShenzhen
Overview
41%Possession59%
11Total Shots20
2Corners10
16Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots20
8On Target6
2Off Target8
1Blocked6
3Inside Box13
8Outside Box7
Passing
41%Possession59%
306Total Passes416
237Accurate Passes339
77%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls10
4Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Super League: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 4–1 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 4-1 in Super League on August 21, 2022.

Goals: Du Yuezheng (21' o.g.), F. Acheampong (32'), Wei Shihao (45+3', 51'), Yang Liyu (65').

Shenzhen Ruby FC controlled possession (59%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Huadu Stadium in Guongzhou.