Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
9/9/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC63%
×Draw20%
Shenzhen Ruby FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.15
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 109% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.04
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.03
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
83%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Shenzhen Ruby FC
80%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
37%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
39%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
88%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
63%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
36%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
64%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
28%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
78%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.15

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
63%
level
20%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
17%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-0 in Super League on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.