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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai — Super League 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
9/29/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC39%
×Draw25%
Changchun Yatai37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.50
Changchun Yatai
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 88 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.09
Changchun Yatai
1.30

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.63
Changchun Yatai
1.90

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Changchun Yatai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
63%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Changchun Yatai
75%
Draw or Changchun Yatai
61%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
19%
Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
78%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
44%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
19%
Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
77%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
43%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
51%
Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.50

Changchun Yatai attack 1.30 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
39%
level
25%
Changchun Yatai scores more
37%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–1 Changchun Yatai

Changchun Yatai beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-0 in Super League on September 29, 2023.

The match was played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Shenzhen.