Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
6/8/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Changchun's People Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Changchun Yatai53%
×Draw23%
Shenzhen Ruby FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changchun Yatai
1.84
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.18

Changchun Yatai creates 56% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 67 away

creates per match

Changchun Yatai
1.44
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

Changchun Yatai
1.33
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw
76%
Changchun Yatai or Shenzhen Ruby FC
77%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
47%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
30%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
84%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
55%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
28%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
69%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
33%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
68%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 88 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.44 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.84

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more
53%
level
23%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
24%

Changchun Yatai at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Changchun Yatai 4–1 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Changchun Yatai beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 4-1 in Super League on June 8, 2023.

The match was played at Changchun's People Stadium in Changchun.