Shenzhen Juniors 3–3 Hunan Billows FC

Shenzhen Juniors

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Hunan Billows FC

5/25/2024

League Two · Round 9Longhua Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shenzhen Juniors55%

×Draw24%

Hunan Billows FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shenzhen JuniorsExpected goals in this matchHunan Billows FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.90

Shenzhen Juniors

1.67

Hunan Billows FC

0.90

Shenzhen Juniors creates 86% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

1.43

creates per match

0.94

0.86

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Shenzhen Juniors

1.43

Hunan Billows FC

0.94

allows per match

Shenzhen Juniors

0.86

Hunan Billows FC

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shenzhen Juniors+0.00on par

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Juniors ↓

Hunan Billows FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shenzhen Juniors or draw

80%

Shenzhen Juniors or Hunan Billows FC

76%

Draw or Hunan Billows FC

45%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Juniors wins by 2+

30%

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shenzhen Juniors 1+ goals

81%

Shenzhen Juniors 2+ goals

50%

Shenzhen Juniors 3+ goals

23%

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals

59%

Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals

23%

Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Juniors (draw refunded)

73%

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Juniors at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Juniors attack 1.43 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Shenzhen Juniors defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Shenzhen Juniors scores more

55%

level

24%

Hunan Billows FC scores more

20%

Shenzhen Juniors at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shenzhen Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff