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Hunan Billows FC vs Shenzhen Juniors — League Two 2022

Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Shenzhen Juniors
Shenzhen Juniors
7/27/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Loudi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hunan Billows FC24%
×Draw23%
Shenzhen Juniors54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hunan Billows FC
1.15
Shenzhen Juniors
1.85

Shenzhen Juniors creates 61% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.22
Shenzhen Juniors
1.79

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.91
Shenzhen Juniors
1.07

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par
Shenzhen Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Shenzhen Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw
46%
Hunan Billows FC or Shenzhen Juniors
77%
Draw or Shenzhen Juniors
76%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
9%
Shenzhen Juniors wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
68%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
32%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
11%
Shenzhen Juniors 1+ goals
84%
Shenzhen Juniors 2+ goals
55%
Shenzhen Juniors 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
31%
Shenzhen Juniors (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Shenzhen Juniors away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 1.22 + Shenzhen Juniors defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Shenzhen Juniors attack 1.79 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more
24%
level
23%
Shenzhen Juniors scores more
54%

Shenzhen Juniors at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shenzhen Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hunan Billows FC 0–3 Shenzhen Juniors

Shenzhen Juniors beat Hunan Billows FC 3-0 in League Two on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Loudi Sports Center in Loudi.