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Shenzhen 2028 vs Hainan Star — League Two 2026

Shenzhen 2028
Shenzhen 2028
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hainan Star
Hainan Star
7/5/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Shenzhen Youth Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Shenzhen 202856%
×Draw24%
Hainan Star19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen 2028
1.69
Hainan Star
0.88

Shenzhen 2028 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 48 away

creates per match

Shenzhen 2028
1.57
Hainan Star
0.88

allows per match

Shenzhen 2028
0.87
Hainan Star
1.81

finishing

Shenzhen 2028+0.00on par
Hainan Star+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen 2028 ↓

Hainan Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shenzhen 2028 or draw
81%
Shenzhen 2028 or Hainan Star
76%
Draw or Hainan Star
44%

Winning margin

Shenzhen 2028 wins by 2+
31%
Hainan Star wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shenzhen 2028 1+ goals
82%
Shenzhen 2028 2+ goals
50%
Shenzhen 2028 3+ goals
24%
Hainan Star 1+ goals
59%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
22%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen 2028 (draw refunded)
74%
Hainan Star (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen 2028 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Hainan Star away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen 2028 attack 1.57 + Hainan Star defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hainan Star attack 0.88 + Shenzhen 2028 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shenzhen 2028 scores more
56%
level
24%
Hainan Star scores more
19%

Shenzhen 2028 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shenzhen 2028 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Shenzhen 2028 2–0 Hainan Star

Shenzhen 2028 beat Hainan Star 2-0 in League Two on July 5, 2025.

The match was played at Shenzhen Youth Football Training Base in Shenzhen.