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Hainan Star vs Shenzhen 2028 — League Two 2022

Hainan Star
Hainan Star
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shenzhen 2028
Shenzhen 2028
5/2/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Yunnan Kehua Football Training Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hainan Star34%
×Draw28%
Shenzhen 202838%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hainan Star
1.12
Shenzhen 2028
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 23 away

creates per match

Hainan Star
1.11
Shenzhen 2028
1.09

allows per match

Hainan Star
1.28
Shenzhen 2028
1.13

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par
Shenzhen 2028+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Shenzhen 2028 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw
62%
Hainan Star or Shenzhen 2028
72%
Draw or Shenzhen 2028
66%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+
14%
Shenzhen 2028 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals
67%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
31%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
10%
Shenzhen 2028 1+ goals
70%
Shenzhen 2028 2+ goals
33%
Shenzhen 2028 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)
48%
Shenzhen 2028 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Shenzhen 2028 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Shenzhen 2028 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Shenzhen 2028 attack 1.09 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hainan Star scores more
34%
level
28%
Shenzhen 2028 scores more
38%

Shenzhen 2028 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shenzhen 2028 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hainan Star 0–1 Shenzhen 2028

Shenzhen 2028 beat Hainan Star 1-0 in League Two on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Yunnan Kehua Football Training Base Stadium in Kunming.