Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shenzhen 2028 vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Shenzhen 2028
Shenzhen 2028
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
5/10/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Shenzhen Youth Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Shenzhen 202853%
×Draw26%
Guangxi Lanhang22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen 2028
1.54
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

Shenzhen 2028 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 40 away

creates per match

Shenzhen 2028
1.57
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Shenzhen 2028
0.87
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Shenzhen 2028+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen 2028 ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shenzhen 2028 or draw
78%
Shenzhen 2028 or Guangxi Lanhang
74%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
47%

Winning margin

Shenzhen 2028 wins by 2+
27%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shenzhen 2028 1+ goals
79%
Shenzhen 2028 2+ goals
45%
Shenzhen 2028 3+ goals
20%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
59%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
22%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen 2028 (draw refunded)
71%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen 2028 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen 2028 attack 1.57 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Shenzhen 2028 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shenzhen 2028 scores more
53%
level
26%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
22%

Shenzhen 2028 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shenzhen 2028 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Shenzhen 2028 2–0 Guangxi Lanhang

Shenzhen 2028 beat Guangxi Lanhang 2-0 in League Two on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Shenzhen Youth Football Training Base in Shenzhen.