Guangxi Lanhang 0–2 Shenzhen 2028: Result & Stats

Guangxi Lanhang

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Shenzhen 2028

7/19/2025

League Two · Round 20Dongxing Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang26%

×Draw27%

Shenzhen 202847%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangxi LanhangExpected goals in this matchShenzhen 2028

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.40

Guangxi Lanhang

0.96

Shenzhen 2028

1.40

Shenzhen 2028 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 23 away

0.80

creates per match

1.09

1.70

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang

0.80

Shenzhen 2028

1.09

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang

1.70

Shenzhen 2028

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Shenzhen 2028+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Shenzhen 2028 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw

53%

Guangxi Lanhang or Shenzhen 2028

73%

Draw or Shenzhen 2028

74%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+

9%

Shenzhen 2028 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals

62%

Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals

25%

Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals

7%

Shenzhen 2028 1+ goals

75%

Shenzhen 2028 2+ goals

41%

Shenzhen 2028 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)

35%

Shenzhen 2028 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Shenzhen 2028 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Shenzhen 2028 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Shenzhen 2028 attack 1.09 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more

26%

level

27%

Shenzhen 2028 scores more

47%

Shenzhen 2028 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shenzhen 2028 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff