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Shenyang Urban vs Shanghai Jiading — League One 2026

Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
10/9/2023League OneLeague One · Round 25Shenyang Institute of Urban Construction Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Shenyang Urban49%
×Draw26%
Shanghai Jiading25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenyang Urban
1.48
Shanghai Jiading
0.97

Shenyang Urban creates 53% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 62 away

creates per match

Shenyang Urban
1.43
Shanghai Jiading
0.58

allows per match

Shenyang Urban
1.36
Shanghai Jiading
1.52

finishing

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par
Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenyang Urban ↓

Shanghai Jiading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shenyang Urban or draw
75%
Shenyang Urban or Shanghai Jiading
74%
Draw or Shanghai Jiading
51%

Winning margin

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
25%
Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
77%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
43%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
19%
Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
62%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
25%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
66%
Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenyang Urban attack 1.43 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shanghai Jiading attack 0.58 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Shenyang Urban scores more
49%
level
26%
Shanghai Jiading scores more
25%

Shenyang Urban at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shenyang Urban 1 – 1 Shanghai Jiading

Shenyang Urban and Shanghai Jiading drew 1-1 in League One on October 9, 2023.

The match was played at Shenyang Institute of Urban Construction Stadium in Shenyang.