Shanghai Jiading 1–0 Shenyang Urban: Result & Stats

Shanghai Jiading

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shenyang Urban

3/24/2024

League One · Round 3Jiading Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Shanghai Jiading39%

×Draw28%

Shenyang Urban34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai JiadingExpected goals in this matchShenyang Urban

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.15

Shanghai Jiading

1.26

Shenyang Urban

1.15

Shanghai Jiading creates 10% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 86 away

1.11

creates per match

1.03

1.27

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Shanghai Jiading

1.11

Shenyang Urban

1.03

allows per match

Shanghai Jiading

1.27

Shenyang Urban

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Jiading ↓

Shenyang Urban →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shanghai Jiading or draw

66%

Shanghai Jiading or Shenyang Urban

72%

Draw or Shenyang Urban

61%

Winning margin

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+

17%

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals

72%

Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals

36%

Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals

13%

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals

68%

Shenyang Urban 2+ goals

32%

Shenyang Urban 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)

54%

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Jiading at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Shenyang Urban away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.41 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Jiading attack 1.11 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.26

Shenyang Urban attack 1.03 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shanghai Jiading scores more

39%

level

28%

Shenyang Urban scores more

34%

Shanghai Jiading at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shanghai Jiading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff