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Shenyang Urban vs Nanjing City — League One 2026

Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Nanjing City
Nanjing City
11/5/2023League OneLeague One · Round 30Shenyang Institute of Urban Construction Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Shenyang Urban41%
×Draw26%
Nanjing City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenyang Urban
1.39
Nanjing City
1.20

Shenyang Urban creates 16% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 86 away

creates per match

Shenyang Urban
1.43
Nanjing City
1.03

allows per match

Shenyang Urban
1.36
Nanjing City
1.35

finishing

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par
Nanjing City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenyang Urban ↓

Nanjing City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shenyang Urban or draw
68%
Shenyang Urban or Nanjing City
74%
Draw or Nanjing City
59%

Winning margin

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
19%
Nanjing City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
75%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
40%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
16%
Nanjing City 1+ goals
70%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
34%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
56%
Nanjing City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Nanjing City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenyang Urban attack 1.43 + Nanjing City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Nanjing City attack 1.03 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shenyang Urban scores more
41%
level
26%
Nanjing City scores more
32%

Shenyang Urban at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shenyang Urban vs Nanjing City

Shenyang Urban beat Nanjing City 3-0 in League One on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Shenyang Institute of Urban Construction Stadium in Shenyang.