Nanjing City 1–1 Shenyang Urban: Result & Stats

Nanjing City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shenyang Urban

11/1/2025

League One · Round 29Wutaishan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Nanjing City45%

×Draw27%

Shenyang Urban28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nanjing CityExpected goals in this matchShenyang Urban

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.04

Nanjing City

1.39

Shenyang Urban

1.04

Nanjing City creates 34% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 86 away

1.37

creates per match

1.03

1.05

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Nanjing City

1.37

Shenyang Urban

1.03

allows per match

Nanjing City

1.05

Shenyang Urban

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nanjing City+0.00on par

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nanjing City ↓

Shenyang Urban →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nanjing City or draw

72%

Nanjing City or Shenyang Urban

73%

Draw or Shenyang Urban

55%

Winning margin

Nanjing City wins by 2+

21%

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nanjing City 1+ goals

75%

Nanjing City 2+ goals

40%

Nanjing City 3+ goals

16%

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals

65%

Shenyang Urban 2+ goals

28%

Shenyang Urban 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nanjing City (draw refunded)

61%

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nanjing City at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 87 matches

Shenyang Urban away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.41 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nanjing City attack 1.37 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Shenyang Urban attack 1.03 + Nanjing City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nanjing City scores more

45%

level

27%

Shenyang Urban scores more

28%

Nanjing City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nanjing City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff