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Shenyang Urban vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
4/26/2021League OneLeague One · Round 1Hankou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Shenyang Urban41%
×Draw26%
Guizhou Zhicheng32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenyang Urban
1.40
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.21

Shenyang Urban creates 16% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 41 away

creates per match

Shenyang Urban
1.43
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

Shenyang Urban
1.36
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenyang Urban ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shenyang Urban or draw
68%
Shenyang Urban or Guizhou Zhicheng
74%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
59%

Winning margin

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
19%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
75%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
41%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
17%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
70%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
34%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
56%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenyang Urban attack 1.43 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shenyang Urban scores more
41%
level
26%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
32%

Shenyang Urban at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shenyang Urban 0–1 Guizhou Zhicheng

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Shenyang Urban 1-0 in League One on April 26, 2021.

The match was played at Hankou Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.