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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Shenyang Urban — League One 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
5/20/2021League OneLeague One · Round 6Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng42%
×Draw27%
Shenyang Urban30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.35
Shenyang Urban
1.10

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 23% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 86 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.30
Shenyang Urban
1.03

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.18
Shenyang Urban
1.41

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Shenyang Urban+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Shenyang Urban →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
70%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Shenyang Urban
73%
Draw or Shenyang Urban
58%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
20%
Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
74%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
39%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
15%
Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
67%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
30%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
58%
Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Shenyang Urban away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.41 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Shenyang Urban attack 1.03 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
42%
level
27%
Shenyang Urban scores more
30%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guizhou Zhicheng 0–2 Shenyang Urban

Shenyang Urban beat Guizhou Zhicheng 2-0 in League One on May 20, 2021.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.