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Shenyang Urban vs Dantong Hantong — League One 2018

Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
8/26/2023League OneLeague One · Round 20Shenyang Institute of Urban Construction Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shenyang Urban45%
×Draw28%
Dantong Hantong27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenyang Urban
1.35
Dantong Hantong
0.98

Shenyang Urban creates 38% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shenyang Urban
1.43
Dantong Hantong
0.60

allows per match

Shenyang Urban
1.36
Dantong Hantong
1.27

finishing

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par
Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenyang Urban ↓

Dantong Hantong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shenyang Urban or draw
73%
Shenyang Urban or Dantong Hantong
72%
Draw or Dantong Hantong
55%

Winning margin

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
21%
Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
74%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
39%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
15%
Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
62%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
26%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
62%
Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Dantong Hantong away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenyang Urban attack 1.43 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dantong Hantong attack 0.60 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shenyang Urban scores more
45%
level
28%
Dantong Hantong scores more
27%

Shenyang Urban at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shenyang Urban vs Dantong Hantong

Shenyang Urban beat Dantong Hantong 2-0 in League One on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Shenyang Institute of Urban Construction Stadium in Shenyang.