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Dantong Hantong vs Shenyang Urban — League One 2018

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
5/14/2023League OneLeague One · Round 5Huludao City Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dantong Hantong41%
×Draw27%
Shenyang Urban32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
1.34
Shenyang Urban
1.15

Dantong Hantong creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Shenyang Urban
1.03

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Shenyang Urban
1.41

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Shenyang Urban+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Shenyang Urban →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
68%
Dantong Hantong or Shenyang Urban
73%
Draw or Shenyang Urban
59%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
19%
Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
74%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
39%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
15%
Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
68%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
32%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
56%
Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Shenyang Urban away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.41 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 1.27 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Shenyang Urban attack 1.03 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
41%
level
27%
Shenyang Urban scores more
32%

Dantong Hantong at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dantong Hantong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Dantong Hantong 2–0 Shenyang Urban

Dantong Hantong beat Shenyang Urban 2-0 in League One on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Huludao City Sports Center Stadium in Huludao.