Shënkolli 0–0 Pogradeci: Result & Stats

Shënkolli

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pogradeci

1/25/2020

1st Division · Round 13Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shënkolli32%

×Draw26%

Pogradeci42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShënkolliExpected goals in this matchPogradeci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.47

Shënkolli

1.24

Pogradeci

1.47

Pogradeci creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 73 away

1.07

creates per match

1.15

1.79

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Shënkolli

1.07

Pogradeci

1.15

allows per match

Shënkolli

1.79

Pogradeci

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shënkolli+0.00on par

Pogradeci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shënkolli ↓

Pogradeci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shënkolli or draw

58%

Shënkolli or Pogradeci

74%

Draw or Pogradeci

68%

Winning margin

Shënkolli wins by 2+

13%

Pogradeci wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Shënkolli 1+ goals

71%

Shënkolli 2+ goals

35%

Shënkolli 3+ goals

13%

Pogradeci 1+ goals

77%

Pogradeci 2+ goals

43%

Pogradeci 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Shënkolli (draw refunded)

43%

Pogradeci (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shënkolli at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Pogradeci away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shënkolli attack 1.07 + Pogradeci defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.24

Pogradeci attack 1.15 + Shënkolli defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shënkolli scores more

32%

level

26%

Pogradeci scores more

42%

Pogradeci at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pogradeci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff