Pogradeci 0–0 Shënkolli: Result & Stats

Pogradeci

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shënkolli

10/5/2019

1st Division · Round 4Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pogradeci66%

×Draw19%

Shënkolli15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PogradeciExpected goals in this matchShënkolli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.96

Pogradeci

2.23

Shënkolli

0.96

Pogradeci creates 132% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 14 away

1.68

creates per match

1.14

0.79

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Pogradeci

1.68

Shënkolli

1.14

allows per match

Pogradeci

0.79

Shënkolli

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogradeci+0.00on par

Shënkolli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogradeci ↓

Shënkolli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Pogradeci or draw

85%

Pogradeci or Shënkolli

81%

Draw or Shënkolli

34%

Winning margin

Pogradeci wins by 2+

42%

Shënkolli wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pogradeci 1+ goals

89%

Pogradeci 2+ goals

65%

Pogradeci 3+ goals

38%

Shënkolli 1+ goals

62%

Shënkolli 2+ goals

25%

Shënkolli 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pogradeci (draw refunded)

81%

Shënkolli (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogradeci at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 72 matches

Shënkolli away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogradeci attack 1.68 + Shënkolli defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.23

Shënkolli attack 1.14 + Pogradeci defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Pogradeci scores more

66%

level

19%

Shënkolli scores more

15%

Pogradeci at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Pogradeci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff