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Shënkolli vs Apolonia Fier — 1st Division 2019

Shënkolli
Shënkolli
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
10/19/20191st Division1st Division · Round 5Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shënkolli30%
×Draw26%
Apolonia Fier44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shënkolli
1.12
Apolonia Fier
1.42

Apolonia Fier creates 27% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 95 away

creates per match

Shënkolli
1.07
Apolonia Fier
1.05

allows per match

Shënkolli
1.79
Apolonia Fier
1.17

finishing

Shënkolli+0.00on par
Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shënkolli ↓

Apolonia Fier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shënkolli or draw
56%
Shënkolli or Apolonia Fier
74%
Draw or Apolonia Fier
70%

Winning margin

Shënkolli wins by 2+
12%
Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Shënkolli 1+ goals
67%
Shënkolli 2+ goals
31%
Shënkolli 3+ goals
10%
Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
76%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
41%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shënkolli (draw refunded)
40%
Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shënkolli at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shënkolli attack 1.07 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.12

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + Shënkolli defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shënkolli scores more
30%
level
26%
Apolonia Fier scores more
44%

Apolonia Fier at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shënkolli vs Apolonia Fier

Shënkolli and Apolonia Fier drew 0-0 in 1st Division on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Besëlidhja in Lezhë.