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Apolonia Fier vs Shënkolli — 1st Division 2019

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Shënkolli
Shënkolli
2/2/20201st Division1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Apolonia Fier65%
×Draw19%
Shënkolli16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apolonia Fier
2.29
Shënkolli
1.05

Apolonia Fier creates 118% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 14 away

creates per match

Apolonia Fier
1.79
Shënkolli
1.14

allows per match

Apolonia Fier
0.96
Shënkolli
2.79

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par
Shënkolli+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

Shënkolli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw
84%
Apolonia Fier or Shënkolli
81%
Draw or Shënkolli
35%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
42%
Shënkolli wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
90%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
66%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
40%
Shënkolli 1+ goals
65%
Shënkolli 2+ goals
28%
Shënkolli 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
80%
Shënkolli (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 90 matches

Shënkolli away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.79 + Shënkolli defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.29

Shënkolli attack 1.14 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more
65%
level
19%
Shënkolli scores more
16%

Apolonia Fier at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apolonia Fier vs Shënkolli

Apolonia Fier beat Shënkolli 5-1 in 1st Division on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu in Fieri.